From Business Week, via the blog Future Hi


Digital Convergence

There's an interesting article in Business Week about the growing convergence between media and personal communication devices. Most of the article is pretty business-oriented but there are some interesting bits that tie in to our ongoing discussions about convergence, paradigm shifts, and technological evolution. It's especially interesting to consider the impact these technologies will have on communication and information in the emerging global brain. Just as the complexity of the human mind evolved to become self-aware, will the global mind have in the not-too-distant future a similar awakening?

Some excerpts :
That sets up a collision of three massive industries. In one corner stands the $1.1 trillion computer and software biz, with its American leaders. In another is the $225 billion consumer-electronics sector, with its strong Asian roots and a host of aggressive new Chinese players. The third camp is the $2.2 trillion communications industry, a behemoth that extends from wireless powerhouses in Asia and Europe to the networking stars of Silicon Valley. All three groups will have a hand in building the digital wonders that are headed our way...

The result is a Big Bang of convergence, and it's likely to produce the biggest explosion of innovation since the dawn of the Internet...Hossein Eslambolchi, president of AT&T Laboratories (T ), thinks the changes ahead will be as significant as the advent of commercial aviation in connecting people and communities. "This is going to be the most disruptive period in the past 50 years," he says...

Driving this long-awaited trend are two powerful factors: the relentless evolution of technology and the tech industry's hunger for growth. For decades, the mere idea of a computer company making Brazilian TVs or French phones would have been laughable. Those markets were cloistered behind varying standards and a maze of diverse technologies. But with the spread of digital technology and the rise of Internet standards, those differences are fast melting away...

As these technologies evolve over the next decade, a new digital world will emerge. Analysts predict that these nascent networks will speed up by an average of 50% a year, the historic norm... As networks grow and chips continue to strengthen, companies will work madly to come up with winning products and services. Within the next five years, industry analysts say, practically every machine in the wide realm of communications -- every gadget that sings, talks, beams images, or messages -- will sport a powerful computer and a network connection. And every bit of digital information, whether it's a phone call, a song, a Web page, or a movie, will flow among these machines in the very same river of data...

The dramatic shifts ahead are likely to shake up age-old concepts at the foundation of our economy. In the coming markets of moving bits, who owns what?

 Newcomers have defined each stage of the Information Era. And the age of convergence offers perhaps the richest yet. Why? The networks now taking shape will link together more than 1 billion people, not just with words or voices, but with music, video, games, and commerce. A vast chunk of the world economy is going digital -- and for the next few years it's up for grabs.

This revolution won't quiet down anytime soon.